Issue No. 436 of Your Weekly Staff Meeting highlights an obvious Top-10 book for 2020, Non-Obvious Megatrends. Incredibly, the author grades himself with a “trend longevity rating” to the 135 trends he’s predicted since 2011. And this reminder: click here to download free resources from the 20 management buckets (core competencies) and click here for my review of Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen, by Dan Heath.
Be Observant, Curious, Fickle, Thoughtful, and Elegant
“At least 50 percent of pundits seem wrong all the time,” wrote Dan Gardner. “It’s just hard to tell which 50 percent.”
Can leaders spot trends—in advance? By page 28, the author of Non-Obvious Megatrends dramatically (dramatically!) shifted my thinking about trends. (Many books deliver pay dirt by page 25, but this was worth the extra effort.) Consider:
• “Trend spotting isn’t the same as identifying actual trends.”
• Definition: “A trend is a curated observation of the accelerating present.”
Rohit Bhargava, founder and chief trend curator of the Non-Obvious Company, shares this helpful metaphor: “When you focus on spotting stories that stand out, you gravitate toward collecting interesting ideas without understanding the broader context of what they mean. Calling the multitude of ideas spotted the same thing as a trend is like calling eggs, flour, and sugar sitting on a shelf the same thing as a cake. You can see ingredients, but true trends must be curated to have meaning just as a cake must be baked.”
Curated is the perfect word—and you will never, ever, read a book quite like Non-Obvious Megatrends: How to See What Others Miss and Predict the Future. Five reasons:
#1. Research Methodology Unmasked! The author gives away the store in the first 67 pages. Actually, you could stop right there—read no further—and you’d already have a ROI more than 100 times the cost of the book. Example: You’ll rarely find a needle-in-a-haystack, but follow the author’s “Haystack Method” of curating trends—and you’ll find gold. Five steps:
1. Gathering—save interesting ideas.
2. Aggregating—curate information clusters.
3. Elevating—identify broader themes.
4. Naming—create elegant descriptions.
5. Proving—validate without bias.
The “Naming” step is brilliant—how to wordcraft memorable trend titles. He delivers five questions that will scorch your first five trend-naming attempts! Example: “Does it make sense without too much explanation? Could you imagine it as the title of a book?”
Click here to watch a one-minute video of Rohit Bhargava’s Haystack Method. (See—he does give away the store and note that in this digital age, he’s old school.)
Click here to view this one-minute video of the Haystack Method.
#2. Five Mindsets Unmasked! Bhargava makes a bold claim: “Non-obvious thinking can make you the most creative person in the room, no matter what your business card says and help solve your biggest problems.” He quotes Isaac Asimov (author/editor of nearly 500 books): “I’m not a speed reader, I am a speed understander.” Bhargava summarizes “The Five Mindsets of Non-Obvious Thinkers” on page 15 (he’s an over-achiever!):
1. Be Observant. See what others miss.
2. Be Curious. Always ask why. [See also The Advice Trap.]
3. Be Fickle. Learn to move on.
4. Be Thoughtful. Take time to think.
5. Be Elegant. Craft beautiful ideas.
Those five points will preach at your next weekly staff meeting. But he doesn’t stop with this well-designed page. He then summarizes the big ideas for each point (two pages per point, again, beautifully designed)—and lists three practical disciplines for each big idea. To be fickle, he suggests, “take shorter notes” and use a Sharpie marker so you note only the most useful observations. You’ll also appreciate his warning to avoid “the temptation to fixate on assigning meaning to every idea instantly.”
#3. Intersection Thinking Unmasked! Chapter 3 is a must-read. “Trends might offer a signal that you should consider abandoning an existing product line or staying the course in a direction that hasn’t paid off yet. Or they could suggest that you should pivot the focus of your career to learn new skills.”
He adds, “What gives you the power to receive these signals and reach these conclusions is intersection thinking, a method for connecting disparate concepts and beliefs from unrelated industries to generate new ideas or products.” The author lists four ways to leverage intersection thinking effectively:
1. Focus on similarities.
2. Embrace serendipitous ideas.
3. Wander into the unfamiliar.
4. Be persuadable.
Bhargava’s personal discipline is to read widely (off-beat magazines, A to Z industry publications, etc.). He takes a cue from the 1980s bestseller by John Naisbitt, Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives (14 million copies sold in 57 countries!). (See also the board retreat trend exercise, Tool #15, in ECFA Tools and Templates for Effective Board Governance: Time-Saving Solutions for Your Board, by Busby and Pearson.)
And here’s a non-obvious aha! When you leverage trend insights effectively, you will strengthen your culture (one of five tips for using trends—see the graphic on page 57). How? Trends will help you “improve your employee engagement and recruiting.” Brilliant.
#4. Four Tips for Running a Trend Workshop Unmasked! The author, apparently, can’t stop giving away the store! Also in Chapter 3, he elaborates on the five tips for using trends with a “Trend Action Guide” featuring five brief case studies (including one of my favorites: Zappos). He scolds us for the boring “About Us” pages on our websites (I agree!), and explains his “Lovable Unperfection” trend from 2017. (Another example of elegant wordsmithing.)
The case study for “Tip #2: Share Your Story” features the self-described “worst hotel in the world,” The Hans Brinker Budget Hotel, which has been “proudly disappointing travelers for forty years, boasting levels of comfort comparable to a minimum-security prison.” (Did I mention you’ll annoy everyone in your sheltered-in-place family by your incessant reading of half-page snippets—both funny and profound—all day long?)
There’s more—and this is crazy. The guy who makes his living giving keynote talks and workshops, tells you how to run a trends workshop! Tip #4: “Always Have an Unbiased Facilitator.” He writes, “It’s easy to assume that the person closest to the problem you hope to solve is the one most suited to lead the workshop. This is never the case.” Must-read (pages 64-67).
By the way, on page 56—there’s a tantalizing fork-in-the-road:
• Option 1: Remain here and continue reading.
• Option 2: Jump to the 10 megatrends starting on page 71.
Oh, my. What will you do? Hilarious and brilliant. I stayed with Option 1 and feasted on the delectable details that delineate how Bhargava and his team curate the trends. If you’re more A.D.D., you’ll likely jump to the 10 trends for 2020—all worth the read.
#5. Trend Longevity Rating Unmasked! Bhargava devotes pages 187 to 230 for “Part III: Previous Trend Reports (2011-2019).” Yes, he’s been publishing non-obvious trends since 2011. (How did I miss them?)
But who does this? He rates his own track record for every non-obvious trend he’s identified since 2011. Honest. I counted 135 trends, and humbly, he gave himself some D’s and C’s, but (in his view) scored dozens of A’s and B’s. You gotta love the honesty—and this models something to all of us.
This week, I ran across Leadership Gold, John Maxwell’s “lessons I’ve learned” book (which he didn’t write until age 60!). My favorite chapter: “The Secret to a Good Meeting Is the Meeting Before the Meeting” (read my review). But I also reread this pithy pointer (just $1.99 on Kindle): “Your Biggest Mistake Is Not Asking What Mistake You’re Making.” So high fives to Rohit Bhargava for his well-documented process for soliciting feedback on his trend-naming—and the guts to publish his “Trend Longevity Ratings.”
OOPS! My mistake—I ran out of room and I didn’t give you my color commentary on the 10 trends for 2020. You’ll have to buy the book to learn more about Amplified Identity, Ungendering, Instant Knowledge, Revivalism, Human Mode, Attention Wealth, Purposeful Profit, Data Abundance, Protective Tech, and Flux Commerce.
To order from Amazon, click on the title for Non Obvious Megatrends: How to See What Others Miss and Predict the Future, by Rohit Bhargava.
Your Weekly Staff Meeting Questions:
1) Does your organization’s uniqueness stand out? In his book, Rohit Bhargava highlights the worst hotel in the world, the world’s best umbrella, and the world’s smartest building. What are we famous for?
2) The author writes, “By some expert estimates, a whopping 90 percent of the data that currently exists in the world was created in the past two years and it will continue to multiply exponentially.” The 2020 trend, “Data Abundance,” addresses “how to make it useful, who owns the data, and who should stand to profit from it.” The author asks us, do we have a data strategy? And the answer is…?
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The Secret to a Good [Zoom] Meeting
Insights from Mastering the Management Buckets Workbook
One of the big ideas in the Meetings Bucket is to “design meetings like an architect designs buildings.” Are you as intentional about designing Zoom meetings as you are in face-to-face (mask-to-mask) settings?
Download (just $1.99 on Kindle), John Maxwell’s short chapter, “The Secret to a Good Meeting Is the Meeting Before the Meeting,” from his book, Leadership Gold.
In 16 quick-reading pages, Maxwell builds the case for turning routine meetings into productive action-oriented gatherings. Following the counsel of Olan Hendrix, he writes that the meeting before the meeting: 1) helps you receive buy-in, 2) helps followers to gain perspective, 3) increases your influence, 4) helps you develop trust, and 5) avoids your being blindsided.
The “no surprises” rule is critical for the key people in each meeting—and typically that means you must meet with them in advance. Maxwell preaches:
• “If you can’t have the meeting before the meeting, don’t have the meeting.
• If you do have the meeting before the meeting, but it doesn’t go well, don’t have the meeting.
• If you have the meeting before the meeting and it goes as well as you hoped, then have the meeting!”
For more resources for more effective meetings, visit the Meetings Bucket.
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JASON PEARSON: UNEXPECTED CREATIVE. Is your organization the “best” or the “worst” in the world? Or just lost in the sea of online anonymity and overload? Need help? Check out the innovative work from Jason Pearson at Pearpod Media (branding, digital, print, and video). And while in your bunker this month, it’s the perfect time to invest in your family by completing the fun and meaningful journal by Jason Pearson and Doug Fields, This. Customizable Journal: 52 Ways to Share Your World With Those You Love. (Read John’s review here.)
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