Issue No. 434 of Your Weekly Staff Meeting urges you to read or listen to this must-must-read book on upstream thinking—how to solve problems before they happen. Timely? And this reminder: click here to download free resources from the 20 management buckets (core competencies) and click here for eight leadership flicks with more than 11 hours of informative and entertaining movies, videos, and YouTube clips.
Trial and Error, Error, Error
During this COVID-19 marathon, could there be a more relevant, timely book than Upstream, by bestselling author Dan Heath? No way. The big idea: solve problems before they happen. Customer complaints, crimes (and get this!)—chronic illnesses are preventable.
RELEVANT! We must experiment. Heath quotes systems thinker Donella Meadows. “Remember, always, that everything you know, and everything everyone knows is only a model. Get your model out there where it can be shot at. Invite others to challenge your assumptions and add their own….The thing to do, when you don’t know, is not to bluff and not to freeze, but to learn.
“The way you learn is by experiment—or, as Buckminster Fuller put it, by trial and error, error, error.”
TIMELY! Don’t make the problem worse. Heath notes, “When we fail to anticipate second-order consequences, it’s an invitation to disaster, as the ‘cobra effect’ makes clear. The cobra effect occurs when an attempted solution to a problem makes the problem worse.” That happened in India, during the UK’s colonial rule. “A bounty on cobras was declared,” and citizens received cash for producing dead cobras. You guessed it—the entrepreneurs began breeding more cobras. (Read more here.)
INSIGHTFUL! Data—the centerpiece of upstream efforts. Heath quotes Joe McCannon who uses “data for the purpose of learning” as distinguished from “data for the purpose of inspection.” Read chapter five (gulp!) to learn why you never hear about data systems “that are useful for people on the front lines.” (Maybe Heath was channeling our new physician hero, Ambassador Deborah Birx.)
Forget all the other “must-reads” I’ve cajoled you into reading. This is the must-must-read of the year. Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen, by Dan Heath, was just published March 3, 2020, and—here at home, hunkered and bunkered—I naively thought, “For once, I’ll read a book without a pen. Just enjoy it. Learn. Reflect.” Not!
The two blank pages in the front of my book are now smothered with 47 page numbers and notes. Forty-seven! There’s no way to cram all this good stuff into a short review. Sorry!
I waded into Upstream while reading Sam Walker’s “Captain Class” column in The Wall Street Journal. The headline: “Covid-19 was a Leadership Test. It Came Back Negative. One lesson from the coronavirus is that we need leaders who prevent crises more than we need managers who scramble to handle them.”
Walker’s WSJ column included this:
Last year, before this virus began to spread, I learned about a parable that’s well-known in public-health circles. It goes something like this:
Two friends are sitting by a river when they spot a child drowning in the water. Both friends immediately dive in and pull the child to safety. But as soon as they do, another struggling child drifts into view. Then another. Then another. After completing several rescues, one of them climbs out of the water.
“Where are you going?” the other friend asks.
“I’m going upstream to tackle the guy who’s throwing all these kids in the water.”
This parable is on page one in Upstream—and it’s the metaphor for the next 243 pages, followed by a “Next Steps” section, a one-page graphic summary of the book (Brilliant—why doesn’t every author give me a one-page summary?), and a discouraging two-page appendix, “Scaling Programs in the Social Sector.” (Heath: “My own take is that this is largely an unsolvable problem—that there are few programs for improving the lives of human beings that are as easy to reproduce on a large scale as fried chicken or lattes.”)
So here are four options for this must-must-read:
• Option 1: View Dan Heath’s four-minute video (see below)—and then delegate your reading to a team member for a report at your next weekly meeting on Zoom.
• Option 2: Actually read the book! (Hardback or Kindle)
• Option 3: Listen to the book, an hour a day, during your daily exercise routine this week (the audio is just 7 hours, 47 minutes). Visit Libro.fm
• Option 4: Don’t read or listen to the book—and continue to manage your “willy-nilly” systems (per the downstream approach to the homeless problem previously used in Rockford, Illinois).
DAN HEATH EXPLAINS UPSTREAM THINKING (4 ½ minutes):
Click here to view the video.
MY TOP-10 TEASERS (and a bonus!):
#10. BOXES. The Dutch bicycle company VanMoof reduced shipping damage by 70% to 80% when “they started printing images of flat-screen televisions on the side of their shipping boxes, which are very similar in shape to flat-screen TV boxes.” (page 104)
#9. BARRIERS. Illustrating the three barriers to Upstream Thinking (problem blindness, a lack of ownership, and tunneling), Heath praises Chicago Public Schools for thinking upstream—and assigning their BEST teachers to ninth grade students, during the “whopper of a transition,” their vulnerable move from elementary school (K to 8) to high school. Where do you assign your best team members? (page 25)
#8. BRACELETS. In a sleepy New England town, north of Boston, a “Danger Assessment” tool brought agencies together to address domestic abuse instead of the previously splintered response. Dan Heath attacks silos like COVID-19 attacks those who don’t social distance. One simple “upstream” innovation—attach GPS bracelets to released offenders BEFORE they leave jail, not two days later at their first parole appointment. I know, “Duh!” But…read the book and you’ll find the finger pointing at you. (page 82)
#7. BUMMERS. Yikes #1: “Choosing the wrong short-term measurements can doom upstream work.” Yikes #2: “Getting short-term measures right is frustratingly complex.” Yikes #3: A ghost victory occurs “when measures become the mission.” (Did I mention “must-read?” See chapter nine, “How Will You Know When You’re Succeeding?”)
#6. BUNKERS. How does one city use “predictive modeling to accelerate ambulance response time? By forward-deploying ambulances around the city, based on the model.” Thus without that system, Heath suggests you bunker down near a fire station! “This could become a selling point for real estate agents: First floor master—AND just a three-minute drive from the fire station!” (page 138)
#5. BUSINESS. Read chapter eight, “How Will You Get Early Warning of the Problem?” and then view this witty IBM Watson TV commercial. (Click here.)
#4. BONKERS! Yikes! An Illinois school district tech director was concerned about phishing attacks—so with a security firm’s help, he sent a “phishing test to the district’s staffers from a weird email address they’d never seen before. The email announced that a suspected security breach had happened earlier in the week and encouraged them to click a link to change their passwords.” Yikes—29% of the staff clicked on the link. (page 221)
#3. BRILLIANT! Read how LinkedIn earned “tens of millions of dollars annually” by reducing the churn rate on a product. Attention: Church Leaders & Association Execs—a member’s first 30 days are the most important. Brilliant. (page 135)
#2. BROWNIE. Did I mention relevant? In the twelfth chapter, “The Chicken Little Problem: Distant and Improbable Threats,” you’ll weep when you read about the “Hurricane Pam” simulation. “The assignment: Create hurricane response plans for New Orleans and the surrounding region.” The July 2004 week-long gathering (amazing collaboration among agencies) launched the planning effort. Except…the follow-up meetings were cancelled because FEMA would not approve the additional $15,000 in travel expense. By the way, Heath notes that Congress ultimately funded $62 billion (not a typo) for the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina which hit 13 months later in 2005.
#1. BUREAUCRATS (see “LAZY”). When your team finally commits to upstream efforts—and you’re pondering how to measure success, Heath has five questions to prevent “pre-gaming” your results—aka “the careful consideration of how the measures might be misused.” They include:
• The “rising tides” test
• The misalignment test
• The lazy bureaucrat test
• The defiling-the-mission test
• The unintended consequences test
BONUS TEASER: BIBLE-READING! One of Heath’s three types of “ghost victories” (where “it’s possible to ace your measures while undermining your mission”) is his youthful account of his father’s offer to pay him $1.00 for every book of the Bible he read. Younger Heath gamed the system—and instead of reading from Genesis to Revelation to earn $66—he started by fast-tracking through Second John, Third John, and Philemon—the three shortest books in the Bible—and then asked his Dad for his first cash payout—three bucks!
Note: I just shipped this book to my favorite state senator in California. You might want to do the same in your state.
To order from Amazon, click on the title for Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen, by Dan Heath. To listen to the audio version (7 hours, 47 minutes), visit Libro.fm
BONUS BOOK! You’ll also enjoy reading (or listening to) the bestselling book by Dan Heath, and his brother Chip Heath (my 2017 book-of-the-year), The Power of Moments: Why Certain Experiences Have Extraordinary Impact. (Read my review.) Listen to the audio book here on Libro.fm (6 hours, 24 minutes). You'll appreciate the ideas in this book when planning the “Welcome Back!” celebration at your office, church, or classroom.
Your Weekly Staff Meeting Questions:
1) Who are you currently getting to know and collaborating with now—in anticipation of the NEXT crisis or disaster? Heath quotes a participant in a community-wide preparedness event, “You don’t want to be exchanging business cards in the middle of an emergency.”
2) One company (see page 160), discovered that email “open rates” were the wrong measurement when their spiffed-up email subject lines caused sales to plummet—even with increased open rates. So…how do we know if we’re measuring the right things? Are we thinking upstream or downstream?
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“Locked in a Room Together”
Insights from Mastering the Management Buckets Workbook
I know. I know. You’re already locked in a room during COVID-19, but this is different. Keep reading!
One of the big ideas in the Customer Bucket is this: “We listen to our customers. We are zealots for researching and understanding our markets.”
Whether you’re planning for your next crisis (visit the Crisis Bucket)—or you finally (finally!) exit your silo to research your customer—Dan Heath urges teams to get “locked in a room together.” That’s one of the not big, but HUGE, ideas of Upstream. Talk! Collaborate! Do it together—trial and error, error, error.
In 2012, about 20 million Expedia customers called the travel company. “At a support cost of roughly $5 per call, that’s a $100 million problem!” For every 100 online transactions, “58 of them placed a call afterward for help.”
But…customer service was hunkered down answering the phone—and their customer satisfaction ratings were acceptable, I’m guessing. Every other department had other metrics. No one saw the big number or the big picture or the big problem.
Finally two upstream thinkers recognized the problem and assembled a war room with a simple mandate: “Save customers from needing to call us.” The results are stunning! “Since 2012, the percentage of Expedia customers who call for support has declined from 58% to roughly 15%.”
The secret: assemble cross-functional teams—and lock them in a room together! (Read chapter one, “Moving Upstream.”)
For more resources from the Customer Bucket, click here.
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JASON PEARSON: UNEXPECTED CREATIVE. Are your communication tools focused downstream or upstream? Check out the innovative work from Jason Pearson at Pearpod Media (branding, digital, print, and video). And while in your bunker this month, it’s the perfect time to invest in your family by completing the fun and meaningful journal by Jason Pearson and Doug Fields, This. Customizable Journal: 52 Ways to Share Your World With Those You Love. (Read John’s review here.)
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